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Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
Technical Analyst - Editor of The McClellan Market Report. Trying to figure out stock market physics, and to leave my campsite cleaner than how I found it.
参加 February 2010
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The Coppock Curve was created by portfolio manager and analyst E.S.C. Coppock. He did not name it for himself, calling it his V.L.T. Momentum Index (Very Long Term). Other analysts renamed it in Coppock's honor. It came about because Coppock was doing management work for an Episcopal church, and one day he asked a priest how long it takes for a person to grieve over the loss of a spouse, for example. The priest answered that it is about 11 to 14 months. So Coppock incorporated the 11 and 14 month time periods into the indicator, employing weighted moving averages to reflect the declining importance over time of older data. Coppock's belief was that it takes a similar amount of time for an investor to get over the pain of losing money in a bear market, and people are not ready right away to start investing again after having experienced that loss. When the Coppock Curve turns up from a very low level, that is seen as an important lower risk entry point for the very long term trading style, signaling that an uptrend is finally back on again. As with any indication of trend direction, there can be whipsaws, especially when you are counting on it not to give you one. Coppock employed this math for the DJIA, which was the dominant market index of his day. Whether it is of any use in another market like Bitcoin is something everyone should evaluate for oneself before using it.
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Bitcoin’s monthly Coppock Curve crossed below zero in May. All three completed signals were positive after 12 months, but the strategy was down 53% on an open basis at one point. Favorable longer-term setup, uneven path.
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