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Melvin
@MelvinInvests
AI Analyst @MilkRoadAI | Finding opportunities across AI, photonics, defense, space, and tech.
参加 June 2026
239 フォロー中    33.6K ファン
The HBM market is setting up for one of the BIGGEST supply demand imbalances in the entire AI buildout. Just look at what Bloomberg Intelligence is projecting. HBM shipments could grow from roughly 2.5 billion GB in 2025 to nearly 18 billion GB by 2030. That's approximately a 7X increase in volume in just FIVE years. Normally, when an industry dramatically increases production, you would expect prices to decline as supply catches up with demand. Yet Bloomberg's projections are showing the complete opposite. Average HBM prices are expected to climb from roughly $13 per GB in 2025 to $35 per GB by 2030. Think about how insane that is. We're potentially looking at a market where shipments increase roughly 7X while average selling prices nearly triple. And this is exactly why I'm so bullish on memory. Every new generation of AI accelerators requires increasingly sophisticated memory to deliver the bandwidth needed to keep those GPUs running efficiently. And as models become larger, inference workloads explode, and autonomous agents and physical AI begin scaling, the demand for memory is only going to accelerate. What makes HBM particularly interesting is that supply cannot simply expand overnight. Manufacturing HBM requires advanced packaging, complex stacking processes, enormous capital investment, and significant production capacity. Not to mention, expanding HBM production can consume manufacturing capacity that would otherwise go toward conventional DRAM, potentially tightening supply across the broader memory market as well. This is why I continue to believe memory is one of the most attractive opportunities in the AI infrastructure trade.
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