Merkle3s Weekly Recap: June nonfarm payrolls massively miss expectations; BTC rebounds from $58,000 to $64,000; Strategy sells BTC for the first time to fund dividends, sending ripples through the market; Robinhood Chain goes live — tokenized equities enter the brokerage-owned chain era; CLARITY Act final text expected July 4 1️⃣ Macro: NFP Shock, Warsh Shifts Tone ➡️ June nonfarm payrolls came in at just +57K (vs. +113K expected), with April–May revised down by a combined 74K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate plunged to 61.5% (lowest since March 2021) as workers dropped out of the labor force. Leisure & hospitality shed 61K jobs in a single month — unusual heading into summer ➡️ At the ECB Sintra Forum on July 1, Warsh said inflation remains "too high" but risks have moderated, highlighting AI-driven productivity gains as a "significant disinflationary force." The tone was softer than his first FOMC meeting but he firmly rejected cutting rates under political pressure. The June FOMC minutes (Warsh's first meeting) drop July 8 — markets will scrutinize the arguments behind the 9 members who penciled in hikes ➡️ Classic "bad news is good news" reaction: stocks rallied, the dollar weakened, and gold/BTC bounced after the NFP miss. July hike odds fell to single digits, but the July 14 CPI report is the next key test 2️⃣ BTC: $58,000 → $64,000 Rebound, Strategy Sells BTC for the First Time ➡️ opened the month around $58,300 and rebounded to roughly $64,000, a ~7% weekly gain. The Fear & Greed Index recovered from 12 but remains in Extreme Fear territory. The 200-week MA (~$61,000–62,000) has been reclaimed as near-term technical support ➡️ Strategy sold 3,588 BTC (~$216M) between June 29 and July 5 to fund dividends on $STRF, $STRE, $STRK, $STRD, and $STRC. This marks Strategy's first meaningful BTC sale in years — representing only ~0.4% of total holdings (843,775 BTC) — but the market reacted sharply, with BTC briefly dipping to ~$61,000 on the news. Saylor emphasized this is routine capital structure management, not a strategic shift 3️⃣ Robinhood Chain Goes Live — Tokenized Equities Enter the Brokerage-Owned Chain Era ➡️ On July 1, Robinhood officially launched its own blockchain (built on Arbitrum), integrating DeFi protocols for tokenized stocks, RWA, perpetuals, and lending. Day-one partners include Uniswap (AMM), Morpho (lending), Chainlink (oracles), and 1inch (aggregator) ➡️ Why it matters: a major brokerage managing tens of billions in crypto assets now controls its own on-chain infrastructure, enabling 24/7 tokenized equity trading across 120+ countries. This marks RWA's shift from "third-party protocol issuance" to "brokerage-owned chain" infrastructure 4️⃣ Prediction Markets: World Cup Keeps Fueling Volume, Polymarket Monthly Volume Tops $10B ➡️ Polymarket recorded approximately $10.26–10.8B in June volume (up ~45% MoM), with the World Cup contributing over $6.6B. The broader prediction market industry (Kalshi + Polymarket + Polymarket US) hit ~$44.8–45B in June (up ~75% MoM) ➡️ Knockout rounds continue drawing massive capital: England vs. Mexico ~$58M, Portugal vs. Spain ~$29.9M. Prop markets have even emerged — "Will Ronaldo cry at the World Cup?" saw $2.6M in 24-hour volume with sharp probability swings 5️⃣ Pump fun: Daily Revenue Among DeFi's Top Two ➡️ Pump fun generates approximately $800–850K in daily revenue, annualizing to ~$398M in fees, with cumulative revenue approaching $1B. 50% of net revenue is programmatically routed to $PUMP buybacks and burns, maintaining a deflationary flywheel ➡️ ~25,000–31,500 new tokens launched daily, sustaining 60%+ market share. $PUMP currently trades at ~1.9x annualized revenue — a relatively low valuation multiple 6️⃣ CLARITY Act Final Text Expected July 4, Floor Vote by Month-End ➡️ Senator Lummis plans to release the CLARITY Act's final text on July 4, with a Senate floor vote targeted after the chamber reconvenes on July 13. SEC Chair Atkins is simultaneously advancing "Project Crypto," publicly committing to making the US the "crypto capital of the world" ➡️ Trump made multiple pro-crypto remarks this week, calling himself a "big crypto fan." The DOJ is working with Treasury and Commerce to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve under the March 2025 executive order