Milk Road Macro(@MilkRoadMacro):Trump said he could accept a 20 year suspension of Iran's nuclear program if backed by strong, verifiable guarantees. This is a major shift in tone. For months, his position was a permanent ban on Iran's nuclear program. The backstory: talks have been grinding since the US pulled out of the 2015 deal in 2018, then struck Iranian targets earlier this year. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said this week that negotiations are stuck on uranium stockpiles. Iran won't give them up and is actively talking to Russia about storage instead. The catch is the verification piece. The 2015 deal collapsed partly because the US and Iran couldn't agree on what verifiable actually meant in practice. That problem doesn't disappear because Trump softened the duration. So both sides are still far apart. But they're talking.

2026.05.15 12:58

Trump said he could accept a 20 year suspension of Iran's nuclear program if backed by strong, verifiable guarantees. This is a major shift in tone. For months, his position was a permanent ban on Iran's nuclear program. The backstory: talks have been grinding since the US pulled out of the 2015 deal in 2018, then struck Iranian targets earlier this year. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said this week that negotiations are stuck on uranium stockpiles. Iran won't give them up and is actively talking to Russia about storage instead. The catch is the verification piece. The 2015 deal collapsed partly because the US and Iran couldn't agree on what verifiable actually meant in practice. That problem doesn't disappear because Trump softened the duration. So both sides are still far apart. But they're talking.

Milk Road Macro@MilkRoadMacro

2026.05.14 11:44

IRAN ALLOWS 30 VESSELS THROUGH HORMUZ AFTER CHINESE DEAL Here's all you need to know: Iran hasn't allowed all ships to cross Hormuz yet. Just the ones from countries that worked out a deal with Iran first. China moved first. Japan and India got clearance too. The fix came through direct coordination between China's foreign minister and its ambassador in Tehran, built on their existing strategic partnership. Here's the setup that made this possible: Iran stood up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority on May 5. Every vessel now needs IRGC sign-off before it can pass. There are designated corridors. And there's a toll: roughly $1 per barrel of oil carried, payable in crypto. They've been enforcing it hard. Ships without clearance got turned back. Some Chinese vessels were actually seized before the deal came together. But why open up now? The US counter-blockade has been squeezing Iran's revenues. Ceasefire talks aren't moving. Iran needed cash and needed allies, so it traded access for both. What actually matters here: - China is now effectively Iran's logistics partner for Gulf transit. That's a structural change in how this waterway works. - Countries that haven't cut a deal yet are still locked out.