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James Muninn
@Muninn
I share deep dives on traders and strategies
参加 October 2022
201 フォロー中    18.2K ファン
‼️WEEKEND STUDY SESSION: how many days until we know we have a winner? WHY "Some of the best setups either go right away, they go straight up.. but sometimes they don't. Sometimes they come down and are very close to stop you out. And sometimes they stop you out and then go." 299 of his 828 breakout entries hit the stop on entry day. 440 on the second day. The 245 that were still open after day 5 add up to +1,555R on the 10-day exit. Everything that closed before adds up to -562R. So the losers are cut fast, and the profits are in the rest. What we don't have is the win-rate post ante, day by day. I know our overall winrate, but I've never checked the winrate on day 2, 3, 4 or 5. THE WORK (2 to 3 hours) 1. Open 30 breakout entries in date order. 2. On each chart, look at the entry candle only. Write down two things: did his stop hold through the day, and where it closed against his entry, in R 3. Move to the close of day 3. Same two things. Then day 5. 4. Then find the exit. 5. Count. Of the trades still open after day 1, how many ended green? Same for day 3 and day 5. Then the second count: on day 1, could the ones that ended big be told from the rest by where they closed? WHAT I'M AFTER Four win rates: one at the buy, after day 1, after day 3, after day 5. I have the first one. If the other three move the way I think they do, it changes how I sit through day 2. I have borrowed stil concept from someone who trades intraday with great success, who doubled his avg. gain in a setup because he cut his losers faster.
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