Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Founder of Silver Bulletin: and cohost of Still Counting podcast!
参加 August 2008
1.8K フォロー中 3M ファン
@mattyglesias I think this is a case where the surface-level critique is dumb (yes 5% chances should happen 5%) but the underlying sentiment is more that prediction markets are often treated as providing oracular precision when they're often more summations of the (sometimes flawed) CW.
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