The US–China competition to become the world’s first AI superpower is the defining geopolitical contest of the 21st century. But it is not primarily a contest between models. It is a contest over the industrial capacity required to manufacture and deploy Intelligence: energy, critical materials, factories, semiconductors, hardware and compute infrastructure. The country that leads will be the one that can secure and scale these foundations reliably. Model capability matters, but it is downstream of them. Without a sufficient industrial base, even the most advanced models cannot be trained, deployed or integrated into systems that create strategic power. The ambitions for AI are extraordinary. Their realization will depend on whether the infrastructure beneath them can keep pace with demand. AI leadership will therefore belong not to the country with the most impressive models alone, but to the country that can sustain the industrial base required to power and scale Intelligence. You cannot lead from the apex if you are hollow at the base.