In January 2024 the CBO projected US deaths would overtake births in 2040. A year later they revised it to 2033. 7 years closer, from one year of new data. The fertility rate is 1.6. Replacement is 2.1, and it hasn’t been above that since 2007. 17 states already record more deaths than births. Through most of the 2010s that number was 4. The CBO’s own words: without immigration, the US population starts shrinking in 2033. Projected growth over the next 30 years is 0.2% a year. From 1975 to 2024 it was 0.9%. That’s the part people miss. This isn’t a story about population, it’s a story about who pays for everything. Social Security, Medicare, housing demand, consumer spending, tax receipts. All of it assumes more workers arriving than leaving. Japan hit this in 2007. Their 30 year bond just went to record highs and they’ve spent two decades trying to grow with a shrinking workforce. The US is roughly 7 years behind them and the date keeps moving closer.