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Paradis Labs
@ParadisLabs
AI & Semiconductor Research | Not Financial Advice | DYOR
参加 March 2026
102 フォロー中    68.5K ファン
$IQE up 18.4% today after reporting "H1 performance ahead of expectations." This is why sticking to a thesis is so important... IQE have also upgraded their 2026 revenue growth guidance from 20% -> over 30%. Driven by InP demand for AI and data centre applications. - H1'26 revenue: £64m vs. £45m H1'25 - Strengthened balance sheet via $MTSI investment leading to debt-free position + bolstered cash position at £42m. I personally think their new ~30% rev growth target is slightly on the lower end - probably conservative estimates on purpose after some recent history of over-estimating growth too soon. But I do believe that we're in the midst of their financial inflection point with IQE forecasting "low-teens £m adjusted EBITDA." Hope they can continue growing sustainably. Looks like they're doing everything right currently, rather than going all guns blazing and absolutely trashing the balance sheet.
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$IQE has unfortunately not been performing well recently. However, we've only had net-positive news since May: - $TSEM multi year InP epiwafer agreement in June w/ minimum purchase commitments from year two - $14M multi year PO from a "strategic global technology leader" for AI/datacentre applications this week - $MTSI board involvement after anchoring a £81M raise to strengthen balance sheet That said, it does seem like IQE is simply resetting (similar to other high beta names like $SIVE) after going up parabolically in a few months. And Chinese export curbs on gallium + InP feedstock are inflating input costs with management also saying that they're sharing that pain with customers. I'm also looking at the fact that their balance sheet almost ruined them a few years ago - which is now solved thanks to £45M from MACOM as a strategic investor tied to LTAs. IQE is one of the only Western epi houses that can supply InP epiwafers at a scale that actually matters. And InP sits under every optical interconnect going into datacentres. Tower didn't sign a multi year supply deal and settle a long standing patent dispute in the process because it had alternative routes to source supply... So currently, you've got: 1. A repaired balance sheet. 2. An anchored strategic partner w/ Macom. 3. Contracted InP volumes. 4. An option on photonics too. However, risks are definitely real and please do not act on my words alone... They've had execution issues in the past e.g. too much internal resource in their wireless segment which has been dying a slow death over the past couple years. (They're correcting that now just by going from their investor decks). Plus of course a long dilution history. And China risks impacting input costs. Drawdowns like the one we're in currently are all part of the game. Where highly volatile businesses = highly volatile returns.
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