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Paradis
@ParadisLabs
AI & Tech Investment Research. No financial advice.
参加 March 2026
182 フォロー中    84.5K ファン
Incredibly bullish $AAOI comments from the Rosenblatt Tech Summit today: 1. Sold out to at least H2 2027 Earnings should be durable...no cyclicality. Same as $LITE and $COHR. 2. Customers are willing to pay a premium for U.S. manufacturing That should mean pricing power leverage over customers = better margins for $AAOI when U.S. capacity comes online later this year. 3. Gross margins expected to inflect from ~30% range to 40% These are end of 2027 targets thanks to their CPO ramp up which is currently behind $LITE / $COHR. Room to grow definitely. 4. Market share could reach 20% with planned expansions Maybe a little aggressive given lower capacity vs. $LITE for example, but I like the ambition. Especially with significant expansions planned for 2027-2028. 5. 800G revenue expected to increase 5x in Q3 I think the reason a 5x is even possible while $LITE still ships behind EML demand is because of $AAOI's in-house laser production. Being vertically integrated is v. good. 6. 1.6T orders are ramping up $70-80 million expected in Q4 and ongoing qualification trials for additional customers. $AAOI earnings call had Q1'27 1.6T doubling in Q4, so the curve is pretty steep. But like I said earlier, the gate has migrated to DSP and TIA allocation which makes $MRVL / $AVGO the kingmakers of who ramps on schedule. 7. LTAs are being considered cautiously To balance profitability with customer diversification. Right call imo. --- Like I said earlier, $AAOI is now a manufacturing story. Demand is there, but growth is capped by the pace of their capacity expansion. That said, the current cycle is incredibly durable that far surpasses any kind of boom/bust talk imo.
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