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Paradis
@ParadisLabs
AI, tech & equities research. No investment advice.
参加 March 2026
147 フォロー中    79.2K ファン
Just a reminder from optical earnings: -> $LITE: "Lasers will remain effectively sold out for the foreseeable future despite our rapid capacity expansion." -> $COHR: "The demand is robust across almost every single product across data center and comms, and it is really just a matter of whether we can sell as fast as we can ramp production.” -> $AAOI: Revenue "bounded almost entirely by our production capacity and key component availability". I'm personally expecting additional margin expansion for the optical players in the coming quarters thanks to their pricing power + higher ASP products e.g. 3.2T initial volumes coming online next year. You've also got LTAs minimizing cyclicality fears, with $LITE and $COHR until 2030 and $AAOI doing 3 year LTAs with a handful of customers. Feels like everything's set up for success right now, confirmed w/ new GS TAM forecasts today being revised-up by over 100% for 2028. For a TLDR: continued growth is due to ramp ups for rack-level AI servers + AI ASICs w/ higher attach ratios of optical modules. On top of this, $NVDA GB200 uses 400G-1.6T, with Rubin and Rubin Ultra migrating further to 1.6T and 3.2T. All driving the adoption of higher speed transceivers as Nvidia rack volumes scale up in 2026-28. Then looking at ASIC users, $GOOGL and $META are expanding 800G+ w/ Google being an early adopter fpr 1.6T. It's also expected that Meta use more Optical transceivers per ASIC vs. GPUs (i.e. on GPU servers typically there are 2-3 optical transceivers per GPU) per GS. I still think that these optical players are all about capacity expansion moving forwards. The sooner they add capacity, the faster the fabs ramp. Side note - I personally don't think pricing power will be impacted as a result. The name of the game lately is to undersupply vs. demand to capture margins, and they all know those demand dynamics better than anyone.
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