$MU Q4 earnings primer: TLDR: It will be another sensational quarter. Basically everyone knows it, so it’s fair to say that expectations are high after June's huge beat with consensus at ~$51B of revenue and ~$31.50 of EPS. Personally, I think the numbers come in above that at ~$52.4B and ~$32.70 which is up from my earlier forecast of $51.9B and $32.30. Recent industry reports suggest that AI server pricing in Q3 came in above expectations, so I’m now using the upper half of the contract-price forecast ranges rather than midpoints I used previously....I don’t think I was bullish enough. (Not a signal to buy (or sell) the stock heading into earnings). Looking at flow data, investors are positioned net positively going in. That said, sentiment has cooled off recently compared with recent quarters after the July deleveraging pushed memory into risk-off territory. We’re seeing this currently in Korea where only domestic investors are net-buyers in recent weeks with foreign investors driving outflows from both SK Hynix and Samsung. Simply, U.S. investors are a bit more risk-off this time round. With a beat largely priced in, I think the real focus will be whether gross margin can hold or beat the guided ~86%. This will be aided by the visibility provided by the SCAs where I think pricing ultimately stays firm. I think this offsets some recent fears about whether memory prices can keep rising. In that sense, the hot topic on the call will be around how new SCAs are priced and how long they run for...and in turn, whether Micron can hold/grow their ~20% HBM share The largest existing agreements cap prices at Q2 2026 levels, so deals signed since June should surely carry higher ceilings given how desperate the hyperscalers continue to be to secure more allocation. Obviously, HBM keeps supply tight too, rising from 22% -> 30% of DRAM wafer starts by the end of 2027 while delivering only 13% of bits. That means that FY27 capex numbers need to be delved into in some depth by management. I personally feel like anything above ~$52B would signal a real supply response for 2028. Lastly, one catalyst to keep in the back of your minds is the end of the CHIPS buyback limits on 9 December. Micron has about $224B of capacity through CY27…and an authorisation of $30B or more with a stated pace would certainly help the stock higher. I feel like it’s a much needed move for Micron. Important earnings. Hate how they report at such a weird time though away from the rest of tech.