Everything has happened before. Everything is repeated.
But the mistake that had the biggest effect on me was in 1982. I had calculated that American banks had lent a lot of money to a bunch of countries that would not be able to pay it back. Mexico defaulted in August 1982, and while I was right about that part, I was completely wrong about the market. I thought the stock market was going to go down, but it went up because the Federal Reserve eased.
I didn't just miss. I was publicly wrong and lost everything. I lost my company and all the people who worked for me—people who were like family. I was the only one left. I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad just to help pay my family bills.
It was one of the most painful experiences I have ever had, but it was also one of the best. It completely changed my attitude about decision-making. It taught me to move from thinking "I'm right" to asking myself, "How do I know I'm right?"
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