We own a good chunk of SpaceX and so proud of the company its ceo and employees/mission. But I’m selling as soon as I could, not because I’m not bullish on the company but it’s been a long hold and it’s time to get the cash out. I see everyone is talking about the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs like they’re guaranteed generational wealth…but the three are rushing to be the first to go public so it can suck all the liquidity out of the market. Jensen Huang compared them to buying Amazon, Google, and Meta early. He’s probably right about the companies. He said nothing about the entry price. That distinction is really everything here. Meta went public in May 2012 at $38. Within three months it was trading at $17. More than 50% gone. The company was fine. The fundamentals were fine. The stock was uninvestable for anyone who bought the hype on day one and didn’t have the conviction or the capital to hold through a 50% drawdown while every financial commentator on earth declared the mobile internet thesis dead. The people who made generational money on Meta didn’t buy the IPO. They bought the wreckage. $17. $18. $19. When the narrative was broken and the sentiment was at rock bottom and nobody wanted to be associated with the trade publicly. Amazon did the same thing after its IPO. Google traded sideways for over a year after listing before the market figured out what search advertising actually meant for margins. The pattern repeats because IPOs are not priced for the investor, they are priced for the seller. The banks, the early employees, the venture funds who have been waiting years for liquidity. Their job is to maximize the exit price preferably to retail investors. Your job however if you’re a serious investor is to let them. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are genuinely fantastic and once in a life type of companies. The AI infrastructure and model layer they’re building will likely define the next two decades of technology. Jensen’s framing is correct at the company level. But the IPO price will reflect maximum hype, maximum coverage, maximum FOMO, and every retail dollar that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for access. That is the worst possible time to buy. The best opportunities come when the story gets complicated. When growth misses one quarter. When a competitor makes a headline. When the lock up expires and insiders sell and the chart looks ugly and the sentiment has completely reversed. That’s when the price reflects fear instead of excitement. That’s when the fundamentals of a great company and a low entry price align. IPO day is for the sellers. The best trade comes later, when everyone who bought the spike has given up and the stock is sitting 40% below its first day close with no one willing to defend it publicly. That’s when I’ll be buying heavy. Not on first day Noway…