Forecasting Research Institute(@Research_FRI):In his recent blog post, @slatestarcodex wrote that "the AI superforecasters are here." We run ForecastBench—a leading AI forecasting benchmark and the only one to compare AI forecasters to human superforecasters. So, how close are current AI systems to superforecasters? For the first time, several AI models are now statistically indistinguishable from superforecasters.

Forecasting Research Institute

@Research_FRI

We advance the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high stakes issues. Co-founded by chief scientist Philip Tetlock.

参加 May 2023

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Forecasting Research Institute@Research_FRI

2026.07.16 15:10

In his recent blog post, @slatestarcodex wrote that "the AI superforecasters are here." We run ForecastBench—a leading AI forecasting benchmark and the only one to compare AI forecasters to human superforecasters. So, how close are current AI systems to superforecasters? For the first time, several AI models are now statistically indistinguishable from superforecasters.