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Ricardo
@Ric_RTP
Private content partner for leading finance & tech founders | $55M+ generated for 35+ clients | I like to share my honest thoughts, don't take it personally
参加 February 2024
128 フォロー中    48.8K ファン
AI just crashed Intel, and Intel's own CEO said so. On Friday, Intel had its worst day since 1974. The stock fell 28.58%, and the US government's 10% stake lost about $12 billion in a single session. Most people will file this under another bad Intel quarter. But this is literally the first big company admitting that the AI boom is now eating the rest of tech. Here's what happened: Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, against about $17 billion expected, and said its gross margin would drop to 37% from 43%. CEO Lip-Bu Tan gave the reason himself: Customers started signaling a PC slowdown because of memory prices and availability. That memory is going into AI data centers. AI servers need enormous amounts of it, and the AI labs locked it up early. In October 2025, Samsung and SK Hynix agreed preliminary deals to supply OpenAI's Stargate with up to 900,000 memory wafers a month, which Tom's Hardware estimated at about 40% of global output. SK Hynix now says it has long-term deals with just 14 buyers covering more than half of its 2027 and 2028 output, and it expects the shortage to last until at least 2030. So everyone else pays more for whatever is left: - Gartner expects memory and storage prices to rise 130% by the end of this year, and PC prices to rise 17%. - Global PC shipments fell 21% in the third quarter, according to Counterpoint. - The WSJ says flash memory prices have roughly quintupled, and Apple's new touchscreen MacBook Pro launched at $2,899, which is $400 above the current M5 Pro model. Meanwhile the memory makers are printing money. SK Hynix's operating profit jumped 632% last quarter to about $62.8 billion. Samsung's rose 783% to about $80.5 billion. That's the transfer happening underneath the headlines. Money is moving out of the companies that build computers and phones and into the companies that make the chips AI is buying up. And Intel was simply the first to say it on an earnings call. Apple reports Monday after the bell, in its first quarter under John Ternus. Apple is one of the biggest memory buyers on Earth, so its gross margin will show whether the AI memory grab has reached the most profitable hardware company in the world. AMD reports on Tuesday. SK Hynix's own forecast runs to 2030. That's a long time for every PC maker, phone maker, and console maker to keep paying more for the same chips. If I owned anything that sells devices, I'd check one number in every earnings report this month: Gross margin. Memory is the cost the AI build-out is pushing up, and gross margin is where it shows first. Intel is the first big company to blame its numbers on AI's appetite for memory, and I doubt it'll be the last.
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Intel is shifting production away from regular PC CPUs and putting more focus on server chips because AI demand is going crazy. Intel is struggling to keep up with demand. >AI companies are getting priority. >There could be fewer CPUs available for desktop and laptop PCs. >Prices could increase if supply gets tighter. >Intel expects new factories and production capacity to help from late 2027. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan described it as one of the most significant supply shortages in the company’s history.
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