I'm registering the following risky prediction: the worst warning shot we ever get out of AI will probably come from China, not the US. Reasoning: China is behind, so they are more desperate, so they will be less transparent and will seek to cover up their huggingface-level warning shots. Safety discourse is less advanced than that in The West. In addition, there is a counterintuitive game theory effect that means that anticipation of a pause in frontier AI development coming soon may paradoxically cause actors who still can to race faster. In the context of climate change this is called the "Green Paradox". China is behind, the US is hemming and hawing about a permanent cessation of frontier AI development and has slowed itself down, so China has a short window to get as much capability as possible before it is forced into an international AI pause agreement under threat of nuclear attack. The more capability it can get in this window, the better its BATNA is at the ensuing negotiations. There's precedent for this kind of negotiation before nuclear nonproliferation regimes. Current techniques are incapable even in principle of producing aligned superintelligence, they are only capable of producing warning shots or existential disaster. I'm not sure what it will look like but I think the incentives point towards China producing a warning shot that China cannot cover up. It will probably not be an existential disaster because China won't contain it technically, and I think there's a pretty big gap between a disaster that China can't cover up and a disaster that ends the world.