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Nebulizer
@SMASIMHO
Current Status: Full Port $NBIS Substack @nebulizerlabs Opinions are biased. Portfolio is undiversified.
参加 November 2025
187 フォロー中    12.3K ファン
Completely disagree with this take when it comes to $NBIS. Might have been true in 2024 and 2025, when hyperscaler contracts were necessary to cold-start the financing flywheel. As confirmed by Boroditsky @ 2026 Fellows Forum, Nebius no longer expects to be doing hyperscaler deals. This is what separates the wheat from the chaff. Who's long-term margin profile, balance sheet strength, and customer prepayment proclivities will allow them to not lean primarily on hyperscaler deals for financing. The rest will subsist in bare metal purgatory for eternity.
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Hyperscalers vs. neoclouds is a lot like a poker table ♠️ The hyperscalers are the big stacks — they control most of the chips (capital). They can afford to be patient. They get to choose which hands to play, which to fold, and when to walk away. A canceled deal with Nscale (power not available until the 2030s) is just one example of that optionality. The neoclouds are the short stacks. They need action. If too many hands pass them by, the blinds will eventually wipe them out. To stay alive and grow, they largely depend on the big stacks continuing to play with them. But that participation is never guaranteed — and the big stacks can change their minds at any time. So the question is simple: which seat (business) would you rather be in? The one with most of the chips and the luxury of patience, or the one that needs the big players to keep dealing them in? ___ *Of course this isn’t a pure zero-sum game — hyperscalers sometimes want neoclouds to succeed as overflow capacity or a way to spread risk, and some neoclouds can still do well if they lock in other customers or differentiate. The point is just to capture the basic power imbalance.
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