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vincent
@SPCX100T
参加 August 2013
448 フォロー中    248.6K ファン
Today Morgan Stanley estimates that levered ETF rebalancing will create 52 billion dollars of forced selling in US equities before the close, with semiconductors taking about twenty-one billion and the Nasdaq 100 another fifteen billion. It’s the second-largest single-day since June fifth, which saw 55 billion. My take: this kind of forced selling is the cleanest signal in the market. The sellers aren’t exiting because fundamentals got worse — leverage formulas are pushing them out. The portion of price that’s been knocked down is mostly pure noise, not a repricing of value. But today there’s one key difference: inexperienced new investors can’t tell. All they see is red screens and panic headlines. They don’t ask who’s selling, or why. Forced selling and genuine fundamental deterioration look identical on a chart. Same decline — some treat it as mechanical noise and step in, others treat it as doomsday and run. Retail behavior itself amplifies the volatility, creating a second layer of stampede. So the real opportunity isn’t the fact of forced selling. It’s whether you can keep that distinction alive inside the chaos.
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