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Samantha LaDuc
@SamanthaLaDuc
Proud Founder + Mother. Curious Cross-Asset Analyst. Persistent Trader on Chase, Swing + Trend Timeframes. "Often right for the wrong reasons."
参加 July 2012
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ONLY reason why Bessent is intervening: Buyers strike on longer-duration bonds. From: 1. Corporate IG issuance at higher yields attracting fixed income away from UST auctions. 2. Inflation risks on falling dollar, war, fiscal dominance, etc 3. Bond raiders & Yen shorts re-engaging. As Geoffrey sums up, Bessent's "move is a nicotine patch for lung cancer." @GraphCall Chart h/t @Adam__Josephson "Buybacks represent a tiny fraction of the Treasury market even after being temporarily upsized, and need to be funded with yet more short-term debt."
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That sneaky bugger... Yield curve control & duration management are financial repression tools that Bessent has employed (like Yellen before him) against a backdrop of fiscal dominance & political expediency. That doesn't mean the long-end rising on war, inflation & supply issuance concerns is fixed! And that doesn't mean a Protracted/Escalating regional Middle East War risk is falling! But it is curious that Bessent chose THIS day to intervene as the selling under the surface kicked in Mon & bullish AI news couldn't bolster buying & bear steepener picked up speed (as warned). Algos triggered a bond, gold, equity pump off an announced $4B Treasury refunding announcement of buying Sept 9 - Nov 4th, but let's face facts: size matters & Bessent is gonna need a bigger boat. "Liquidity support" in the form of buyback operations in the long-end is not nearly enough to satisfy growing issuance. But... it **could** affect a big, important reaction: A flattening of the yield curve can drive real rates lower which is stimulative - along with lower USD - if it sticks. Add to that, **IF** inflation expectations FALL with mortgage spreads, then a normative Fed rate CUT could be back on the table. 🤯 But I still think this will be super hard to do given lack of consensus on FOMC board unless labor cracks hard. Also, as the future inflation from falling dollar will add to the difficulty. But the backstop by Bessent does put my $SPX $8200 2026 (MarketWatch call Dec 30th 2025) in full view again on falling dollar. So we've got that going for us.
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