Samantha LaDuc(@SamanthaLaDuc):Don’t think it will stick - any of it: not the bond OR yen bounce. My bet: Violently sideways into end of year - then let’s talk Q1 2027 (earliest). But if $WTIC pierces > $120 🥺😩 Or UE rate hits 4.6%? ☄️⚠️ We can talk sooner 🙃

2026.08.19 21:29

Don’t think it will stick - any of it: not the bond OR yen bounce. My bet: Violently sideways into end of year - then let’s talk Q1 2027 (earliest). But if $WTIC pierces > $120 🥺😩 Or UE rate hits 4.6%? ☄️⚠️ We can talk sooner 🙃

Samantha LaDuc@SamanthaLaDuc

2026.08.19 20:12

Agree with you and also @wolfofwolfst: "It’s a hocus-pocus show because the Treasury cannot print money, but has to issue debt to buy back debt, and because the amounts are too small to matter. Its sole purpose is to verbally manipulate the bond market to push up bond prices and push down long-term yields, and the bond market loves to be manipulated to where prices rise because existing bondholders, especially leveraged funds, can make a lot of money, and they just need a buy signal, and Bessent just gave them another buy signal."