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Schulz Duggan
@Schulz_Research
Independent AI supply-chain research: optics, memory, power. Asia and US filings in the original, translated into pricing. The chokepoints nobody prices in.
参加 January 2026
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$POET closed CIOE on Friday evening saying its optical engine product lines can address the NPO market for 6.4T and above. Two days earlier, on the same stand, its own sales people were describing 800G in mass production and 1.6T in small-volume build with multiple customers running qualification. I put the two sentences next to each other, because they are not the same kind of sentence. Can address is a claim about reach. In mass production is a claim about shipment. Both are true at the same time and neither contradicts the other. What moved between Wednesday and Friday is which one the company led with, and the speed tier it chose to lead with went from 1.6T to 6.4T and above. The number that would settle it did not arrive. This whole CPO and NPO conversation has spent a year converging on high-power continuous-wave light sources, and Blazar is aimed directly at that. The closing post describes it as a next-generation high-power multi-channel hybrid laser. High-power is an adjective. There is still no figure attached to it, and the show is now over. For a sense of what such a figure would eventually have to stand beside: Lumentum has published its co-packaged external light source at 400 mW in the first generation, 350 mW per laser in the sixteen-channel version, and a higher class above 1.0 W at 25 degrees. Those are numbers on a page. Nothing comparable has been put out for Blazar. Then the balance sheet, which reorganises the whole thing. Second-quarter revenue was $569,925. Net loss $11.3m. Cash and short-term investments $796.3m, after a $400m raise in May. Divide those into each other. The cash position is worth 1,397 quarters of the current revenue line. Measured against the current quarterly loss instead, it covers roughly seventy quarters. Whatever is uncertain here, runway is not the uncertain part. Which is why I read the 6.4T line as positioning rather than as a stretch. A company sitting on seventeen years of cash at the present burn has no reason to oversell a quarter. It can talk about where the architecture reaches and let the shipping line catch up behind it. The risk in that posture is not solvency, it is duration: the gap between the capability sentence and the shipment sentence staying open long enough that the market stops paying for the first one. The one forward figure carrying a dollar sign is Lumilens. An initial order of $50m, which the company calls the first phase of a relationship that could scale past $500m cumulative over five years. At the current run rate the $50m on its own is 88 quarters of revenue. The $500m ceiling is 877. $POET traded at 7.85 mid-session, up 3.4%. What would change my read: a published output power per channel for Blazar, or the first 1.6T customer moving from qualification into a production order. Either one converts a capability sentence into a shipment sentence, and on this name that is the only conversion that counts. Revenue has now risen sequentially for six straight quarters, so the direction is already established. What is missing is the size of the step, and the company has the cash to take its time deciding when to show it.
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