I pulled $ORCL 's slides off the exhibit the night they filed and wrote this up on the 11th, so let me add the part I got wrong and the part nobody has put next to it.
What I got wrong: I said Oracle did not disclose what the 20% was measured against. It did, on the call rather than on the slide. Management said all capacity up for renewal was renewed or resold 20% above the prior contract price, and that the majority of those GPUs were four years old or more. That is a better fact than the one I had, and it makes the read stronger rather than weaker.
So the version where rent falls away as silicon ages is dead for now. That was the version that broke the arithmetic, and it was the one that mattered.
Here is the part that has not been put next to it. The renewal premium is on slide ten. On slide nine, one page earlier, Oracle says the majority of the quarter's RPO growth came via pre-pay or bring-your-own-hardware. And in the cash flow statement filed with the same deck there is a line reading increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component, 11,363 million dollars, against a dash for the same quarter a year earlier.
So the counterparties paying the 20% are substantially the same ones who prepaid for the capacity, and on the bring-your-own side, part of the fleet is not Oracle's asset at all. That is not an accusation, and Oracle disclosed all of it on adjacent pages. It is a note on what kind of number 20% is. A price agreed with someone who already funded the build is a different thing from a price set in an open market. Not a worse thing. A different one.
The other number on that slide is doing more work than the premium. Utilisation was 97.9%. At 97.9 there is no spare capacity to discount into, so the premium is what a sold-out market prints, which is a claim about the market rather than about how well the asset held its value. Both readings fit the data. Only one survives utilisation slipping, and the premium is the first thing to go when it does.
Two questions keep getting merged here and they should not be. Useful life is set by a policy. Rent is set by a market. This quarter told us a great deal about the market and nothing about the policy.
Both numbers are disclosed now, so both are checkable in ninety days. That is the date I am watching, along with whether the prepayment line stays this large while the premium holds. $ORCL $NVDA $NBIS $IREN
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It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings.
Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since:
Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts.
Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older…
So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis.
And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.
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