$AXTI $LITE $COHR If MicroLED stalls, the gain goes to lasers, as Serenity says. But the two lasers he names grow on different wafers, and only one of them is short. VCSELs are gallium arsenide parts for short multimode links, the slot MicroLED was aiming at. The CW lasers that light co-packaged optics, and the EMLs in today's pluggables, are indium phosphide. InP has "only three primary suppliers," per AXT's 10-K: AXT in China, and Sumitomo Electric and JX Advanced Metals in Japan. The laser makers already say where the pinch is. Coherent: "indium phosphide capacity continues to be our primary constraint." Lumentum said in August that ultra-high-power laser demand "has surprised us" and that it has spent three months trying to "secure even more substrate supply." More supply is coming, mostly after 2027. Sumitomo plans about 3x its InP substrate capacity from 2024 to 2028. JX is spending up to ¥120bn over four years to reach 7 to 10 times its fiscal 2025 level. In China, Yunnan Germanium is going from 150,000 to 450,000 wafers a year and Vital Materials to 3 million by August 2029, and those wafers leave China under dual-use export licences. The average 4-inch InP substrate in China was RMB 6,250 in early August, up about 45% since January. So a MicroLED setback lands mostly on the wafer that's already short. AXT reports on Oct. 29, and its licensed exports to Europe are the line we'll read first.