Schulz Duggan(@Schulz_Research):$CRWV $NBIS CoreWeave and Nebius are selling into the same shortage, and both have now priced short-term capacity above $40M per MW a year. Where they differ is funding. At the last balance sheet, CoreWeave carried $4.7 of debt for every $1 of customer prepayments. Nebius carried $1.4. Serenity's line on older GPUs is the one we'd underline too. CoreWeave said Ampere and Hopper rental prices rose 30-50% quarter over quarter in Q3 and are now above their original contract prices. A fleet that's already financed is earning more as it ages, and that's what lenders care about most. CoreWeave's position: $46.9B of debt at Sep 30 against $10.0B of prepayments. Q3 net interest was $846M, adjusted operating income $379M, and Q4 interest is guided at $1.05-1.15B. The way out runs through the old fleet. Management put 2027 renewals at close to $4B of extra annualized revenue at today's prices with no new capex, and more than $3B of the ~$9B in prepayments expected over the next three months comes from re-contracting infrastructure whose financing is already repaid. Its next delayed-draw term loan is expected at 7-7.5%. Nebius's position at Jun 30: $8.5B of debt, $6.0B of prepayments, $8.0B of cash. Its newest secured money is cheaper, a GPU-backed loan at SOFR + 2.50% and a Citi facility at SOFR + 2.75%, about 6.4% and 6.6% with SOFR at 3.88%. It also sold $2.8B of stock through its ATM at an average $223.6 a share, against Tuesday's $133.96 close. So on rates we're with Serenity. Nebius's harder test is delivery. It's targeting 5 GW of contracted power by year end and more than 1 GW a year of deployment from 2027. Its Microsoft contract lets Microsoft terminate a GPU service if Nebius misses the agreed delivery dates after a grace period and can't provide alternative capacity. Nebius reports Thursday before the open, with the call at 8am ET. We're watching four numbers: 1. Annual contract value per MW, against the >$40M short-term level it flagged in August 2. Prepayments collected, against the >$9B it expects for 2026 3. How much of the 5 GW is energized and on schedule 4. Debt on the balance sheet once the $5.75B of August convertibles are in

2026.11.11 06:12

$CRWV $NBIS CoreWeave and Nebius are selling into the same shortage, and both have now priced short-term capacity above $40M per MW a year. Where they differ is funding. At the last balance sheet, CoreWeave carried $4.7 of debt for every $1 of customer prepayments. Nebius carried $1.4. Serenity's line on older GPUs is the one we'd underline too. CoreWeave said Ampere and Hopper rental prices rose 30-50% quarter over quarter in Q3 and are now above their original contract prices. A fleet that's already financed is earning more as it ages, and that's what lenders care about most. CoreWeave's position: $46.9B of debt at Sep 30 against $10.0B of prepayments. Q3 net interest was $846M, adjusted operating income $379M, and Q4 interest is guided at $1.05-1.15B. The way out runs through the old fleet. Management put 2027 renewals at close to $4B of extra annualized revenue at today's prices with no new capex, and more than $3B of the ~$9B in prepayments expected over the next three months comes from re-contracting infrastructure whose financing is already repaid. Its next delayed-draw term loan is expected at 7-7.5%. Nebius's position at Jun 30: $8.5B of debt, $6.0B of prepayments, $8.0B of cash. Its newest secured money is cheaper, a GPU-backed loan at SOFR + 2.50% and a Citi facility at SOFR + 2.75%, about 6.4% and 6.6% with SOFR at 3.88%. It also sold $2.8B of stock through its ATM at an average $223.6 a share, against Tuesday's $133.96 close. So on rates we're with Serenity. Nebius's harder test is delivery. It's targeting 5 GW of contracted power by year end and more than 1 GW a year of deployment from 2027. Its Microsoft contract lets Microsoft terminate a GPU service if Nebius misses the agreed delivery dates after a grace period and can't provide alternative capacity. Nebius reports Thursday before the open, with the call at 8am ET. We're watching four numbers: 1. Annual contract value per MW, against the >$40M short-term level it flagged in August 2. Prepayments collected, against the >$9B it expects for 2026 3. How much of the 5 GW is energized and on schedule 4. Debt on the balance sheet once the $5.75B of August convertibles are in

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

2026.11.11 05:42

$CRWV ER and read through for $NBIS and other Neoclouds: “We have 10x as much qualified demand as available capacity”. - interest in 2028 capacity already amounts to several times what CoreWeave has available - CoreWeave raised prices by 25% in July, +10% later in Q3, and more to come in Q4 - Ampere and Hopper rental pricing rose 30–50% quarter over quarter (older GPUs) - better financing conditions (higher prepayments, lower interest 7–7.5% for new loans) - positive adjusted net income in the first half of 2028. So we’re seeing higher pricing esp. for older GPUs…better financing mechanics, and extreme demand imbalance where you have 10x demand > supply. Same issues are there for this company in specific with interest rates, but I’d argue other Neoclouds are in a better spot. But it’s wild to witness AI infrastructure names crash while demand keeps growing