The Malaysia HBM spike is real enough to watch. The leap from that spike to “EMIB is eating CoWoS” is not. SemiAnalysis says Korean HBM shipments to Malaysia jumped 467% year on year and hit about $3 billion in two months, while Taiwan cooled, and that Intel Penang is the reason. Directionally, the trade shift exists. Bernstein and earlier ChipBook read-throughs already put Malaysia near $1.3 billion in a recent month. Intel’s Project Pelican packaging site is also real. That part checks out. The causal story does not. Customs data shows destination, not consignee. It does not prove the memory went into EMIB. It does not prove it was assembled at Intel rather than ASE, SPIL, Chipbond, or inventory. It does not prove TSMC lost a CoWoS socket. Official Korean trade still treats Taiwan as a core HBM path into NVIDIA-class CoWoS. TrendForce still calls CoWoS-L the mainstream AI package through 2028. NVIDIA training silicon has not moved. EMIB is a second source, mainly for larger inference and custom ASICs that cannot get CoWoS allocation. That is competition. It is not a regime change. $INTC $TSM