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Shanghai Macro Strategist
@ShanghaiMacro
China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West. Contact: shanghaimacro@gmail.com
参加 April 2022
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This post reminds me of a report I worte in late 2023, titled "China’s Oil Demand Has Peaked." The main takeaways from that report were: 1. China’s oil demand may have peaked on a secular basis. 2. The total number of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles currently on the road has declined for the first time in history, indicating a peak in gasoline demand. 3. Over the next five years, China’s annual gasoline demand may decline by an average of 35 million barrels, or 96K bbl/d. 4. Gasoline demand destruction will accelerate in 2027. As such, I suspect China's incentive to restock crude oil is much weaker than many investors anticipate, particularly given the recent deterioration in domestic demand and Beijing's continued reluctance to step up stimulus.
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Excluding any US-Iran talks about Hormuz, China remains the most important factor for oil prices for the next 60 days or so. All eyes on Beijing. Ex-China Asian oil imports have recovered to normal levels (see 📈⤵️), within the 2023-2025 range. What China does next is crucial.
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