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Shanghai Macro Strategist
@ShanghaiMacro
China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West. Contact: shanghaimacro@gmail.com
参加 April 2022
347 フォロー中    58.5K ファン
In short, when China solves the chip issue, it’s game over.
Chinese labs will catch up to OpenAI/Anthropic much faster than people expect. U.S must stop data center haters now. To replicate a frontier lab, you need 3 things: compute, talent, data. Within the compute bucket, there are 3 things: energy, data center, and chips. Right now, the only blocker for China is chips. Nothing else. 1. Data gap is solved: The same data vendors sell the same data to all labs, including Chinese ones + China can distill anything anywhere. 2. Talent gap is solved: China has more frontier labs, equally smart talents and 10x lower salaries. 3. Energy is solved already: China has 62 nuclear plants and working on 36 more. 4. Data center is solved. China is building data centers like crazy because Xi said so. End of conversation. 5. Chips is the only gap. Huawei is catching up but still not there yet. There are obviously (not-so-compliant) workarounds to get NVIDIA chips. In 2-3 years, I imagine China would close the chip gap. Then they would be truly unstoppable. However, U.S has huge gaps in energy and data centers and the pace to unlock those is way too slow. U.S must unblock compute to win. Fuck data center haters.
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