The shift to open source AI
- negative for the AI capex trade short term
- bullish neo clouds
- bullish enterprise AI sovereignty (Nous, Palantir, Microsoft)
- Bearish OpenAI and Anthropic margins
- Bullish BTC as AI trade slows
- Bullish BTC when we get UBI given AGI
- Bullish BTC if AI trade blows up as a safety route
- Yes I’m bullish AI long term and think we get AGI my takes are nuanced
1/ Does the shift to Open Source break the AI capex buildout?
TLDR: If a user shifts from $25M Opus 5 to $4.44 GLM 5.2 how does this ripple through the AI supply chain?
Well it all comes down to how much the infra providers earn in each scenario