I’m going to be brutally honest here. A part of me didn’t want to publish any of this. I’ve been asked repeatedly to use some of this sentiment data to trade, and I’ve often urged people not to. I’m a long-term HODLer myself, and I've seen how painful it can be to try to time your Bitcoin buys. But I find myself in an interesting position. Because some of the sentiment data I’ve been sitting on has been extremely high-signal. Historically, buying during low readings has produced stronger returns than buying during high readings. That’s a big claim. So it deserves scrutiny. But the longer I’ve spent with this data, the more confident I've become that I’m sitting on something valuable. So today I’m going to share the strongest (though slightly counterintuitive) signal I’ve found so far. Not greed. Not fear. Desire. How badly the crowd WANTS Bitcoin to pay off. I’ve tracked tons of different emotions in Bitcoiners’ language, using data spanning most of the past decade. I've learned a lot and seen many positive correlations, but this one stood out above all others. I’ve talked about desire before. But today, I want to show you what Bitcoin’s returns looked like after the highest and lowest readings historically, and why that matters for Bitcoin today.