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TBU
@TBU12345678
Not investment advice.
参加 April 2013
563 フォロー中    12.1K ファン
can agree that what Dario and Sam are saying is not genuine and trying to cover up an issue with the biz models + trying to legislate their way back. couldn’t be coming at a worse time as rates tick up. doesn’t break in a straight line, but clear that it’s arrivederci upcycle
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at the end of last year I had postulated that H1 would be a bubble and H2 would be the beginning of the end. my conviction in this continues to grow: - memory (which us finally dominated by DC) is losing steam - similar to previous cycles the “good guy” driver no longer powering the train is bad - only cloud (renting GPUs to labs) is “actually good” at hypers. that puts crazy onus on 2 co’s that aren’t all coming up roses anymore - now that financing relies on debt, rates glidepathing up is a big problem this will take a different form that before (send it all down!) given that pods must always be long some stocks. i think this is just “big unwind” but i am not sure how the market plays it now vs. ‘22 other than increased vol
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