Some thoughts on recent price action in Tech:
Post-earnings action continues to be a lot better in internet & software. Investors there are still showing an appetite for buying names up post-earnings, especially where numbers accelerated and the narrative improved, even if just marginally. $PLTR +2%; $TEAM +2%; $TWLO +3.5%; $U +25bps; $UBER +4%; $SAP +1%; $MSFT +1%; $ABNB +4%; $TTWO +2% are a few of the names that printed solid earnings and have follow-through. This shift in flows out of semis started with $s flowing into hyperscalers a couple weeks ago and has now expanded. We even started to see some willingness to buy the dip on misses, with $DDOG +11% and $FIG +9% today, while something like $AKAM +6.5% didn’t stay down long.
Compare that with the anemic follow-through in AI Semis: $ANET following its big beat, $STX, or $ALAB selling off despite the big Sept Q guide. The weaker prints like $INTC and $SNDK also continue to struggle to find a bid.
There’s admittedly some cherry-picking in the attached table showing how stocks have reacted following prints, but in our defense, there are a lot of cherries.
To put it succinctly: with the AI semi vibes & narrative remaining choppy and some of the more favored parts of the trade (memory, CPUs, storage, etc.) seemingly rangebound for the time being, investors appear increasingly comfortable putting $ to work in idiosyncratic ideas outside the space in names where the earnings narratives are moving in the right direction, numbers are beating, valuations have come down, names have underperformed YTD, and sentiment is tilted to the left. We thought some of those flows would also go to $NVDA, but even that is lagging.
Today felt like that risk appetite broadened another notch outside AI semis, with investors willing to spread dollars further down the bench, buying misses and revisiting high-quality underperformers without an obvious near-term catalyst, as the $NFLX/ $SPOT moves illustrated.
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