The bear case (other than scaling laws failing) for Ant + OAI was previously that Google would weaponize gross margins and commoditizes the frontier. The bear case going forward is that republicans stay firmly in control past 2028 and Elon leverages a compute advantage to spin faster cycles on his RSI and unlike the Google org has the risk tolerance to make broadly available a frontier model that the labs are too scared to. We are approaching the point where risk tolerance is very very important. Suspect “safety & alignment” is going to take up a much larger portion of opex for the labs vs what people might think. Think of the five worst people you have ever met. Now imagine if you gave each of them ten thousand employees and free rein. Terrifying. (Example stolen from latest moonshots pod)