True North(@TNorth):Bitcoin’s 4-year CAGR was roughly 41% as of September 8. Jeff breaks down what different growth rates could imply by Sept. 2030: - 41% CAGR: ~$308,000 - 30% CAGR: ~$222,000 - 20% CAGR: ~$161,000 Even the 20% scenario puts $BTC only about 27% above its previous all-time high. His view is that if you’re underwriting Bitcoin to a high long-term CAGR, periods near the 200-week moving average are where you want the most exposure your risk framework allows. “You would want to be maximally long, maximally amplified to the extent that the market allowed.”

True North

@TNorth

True North is a team of investors and analysts exploring the outer edges of Bitcoin, digital credit, finance and macro economics.

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True North@TNorth

2026.09.11 19:00

Bitcoin’s 4-year CAGR was roughly 41% as of September 8. Jeff breaks down what different growth rates could imply by Sept. 2030: - 41% CAGR: ~$308,000 - 30% CAGR: ~$222,000 - 20% CAGR: ~$161,000 Even the 20% scenario puts $BTC only about 27% above its previous all-time high. His view is that if you’re underwriting Bitcoin to a high long-term CAGR, periods near the 200-week moving average are where you want the most exposure your risk framework allows. “You would want to be maximally long, maximally amplified to the extent that the market allowed.” - @PunterJeff