Open-weight AI is 6โ7 months behind the closed frontier but frankly your workload doesn't care. Did your problems get 6โ7 months harder?
Epoch measured the capability gap specifically for cybersecurity.
๐ฃ GLM-5.3 โ 160 Cyber ECI
๐ฆ GPT-5.4 from March โ 157
๐ฆ today's closed frontier โ ~171
So today's best open-weight cyber model is roughly where the closed frontier was 6โ7 months ago.
That sounds like bad news for Local AI.
I'm not sure it is.
Because there's a more fundamental question - Did your problems get 6โ7 months harder?
If yesterday's frontier model can already
๐ป build the app you need
๐ search your documents
๐ง fix your code
๐ analyze your spreadsheet
๐ค automate your workflow
then today's smarter frontier model doesn't suddenly make yesterday's model incapable.
This is the part of AI benchmarks I think we're beginning to miss.
The frontier keeps moving.
But the capability threshold required to solve problems nearly all of us encounter often doesn't.
Once a local model crosses that threshold, the competition changes.
Most people don't actually want to code.
They want the thing the code produces.
If a local model can write the tool, run it and solve the problem, it doesn't necessarily matter that Opus can solve a substantially harder problem.
And today's other OpenRouter number makes this point ๐ Open weights โ 72% of tokens / 27% of spend.
โ ๏ธ Epoch measured cybersecurity capability, not general everyday usefulness, and GLM-5.3's Cyber ECI currently comes from only three benchmark results. Epoch AI
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