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Teslaconomics
@Teslaconomics
I post my conscious thoughts w/ the world, live to the fullest, keep things simple, truthful & filter the noise. Long-term investor in Tesla, SpaceX, xAI/X.
参加 April 2018
230 フォロー中    511.9K ファン
During Tesla Cybercab launch week in Austin, I took a total of 12 paid Cybercab rides and kept every receipt. TOTAL: • 12 rides • 29.7 miles traveled • $108.34 total spent • $3.65 average cost per mile • 2 hours and 19 minutes riding around Austin in a Cybercab • Compared to Uber and Waymo, every Cybercab ride was still ~30-50% cheaper EACH OF MY CYBERCAB RIDES: 1/ Sept 3 — 7:23 PM 3.9 miles · 16 min · $8.70 ≈ $2.23/mile 2/ Sept 3 — 7:53 PM 0.5 miles · 6 min · $4.65 ≈ $9.30/mile 3/ Sept 4 — 6:52 AM 2.5 miles · 12 min · $6.99 ≈ $2.80/mile 4/ Sept. 4 — 7:13 AM 2.4 miles · 11 min · $6.84 ≈ $2.85/mile 5/ Sept. 4 — 7:39 AM 1.8 miles · 11 min · $6.16 ≈ $3.42/mile 6/ Sept. 4 — 8:03 AM 1.4 miles · 8 min · $5.69 ≈ $4.06/mile 7/ Sept. 4 — 8:20 AM 3.3 miles · 15 min · $7.90 ≈ $2.39/mile 8/ Sept. 4 — 10:58 AM 4.0 miles · 19 min · $8.78 ≈ $2.20/mile 9/ Sept. 4 — 11:58 AM 2.6 miles · 8 min · $7.08 ≈ $2.72/mile 10/ Sept. 4 — 2:17 PM 2.8 miles · 11 min · $13.71 ≈ $4.90/mile 11/ Sept. 5 — 12:57 PM 2.4 miles · 10 min · $16.18 ≈ $6.74/mile 12/ Sept. 5 — 1:36 PM 2.1 miles · 12 min · $15.66 ≈ $7.46/mile One of the biggest things I learned from actually using Cybercab is that you cannot judge the economics from just one ride. Pricing is dynamic. Some of my longer rides came in cheaper around $2.20–$2.40 per mile. Some of the shorter or higher-demand rides were much more expensive. Sometimes, the Cybercab was even more expensive than the Model Y (Unsupervised) bc the demand was so high. Some of the rides also became more expensive as Cybercabs became bookable on September 4 to the general public. However, it’s hard for me to look at these receipts and not wonder how Uber and Lyft can compete if Tesla can scale Cybercab the way it wants to. Uber and Lyft were built around connecting riders with human drivers. That means every ride has to support a much bigger cost stack... like 1/ A human has to be paid. 2/ That person needs a car. 3/ That car has to be financed or purchased. 4/ It needs insurance. 5/ Maintenance. 6/ Fuel or charging. 7/ And then Uber or Lyft still needs its cut. Cybercab attacks the biggest cost in that entire system which is the driver... there is no driver waiting to be paid at the end of the ride. And Tesla is supplying the software. Tesla can build the car. Build the battery. Build the autonomy system. Operate the network. Control the app. Control the charging. And the team designed the Cybercab from Day 1 around being a Robotaxi instead of taking a normal consumer car and trying to make the economics work. This is a big deal. Bc if Tesla can manufacture these at huge scale, keep them on the road for most of the day, and keep bringing the cost per mile down, then Uber and Lyft are going to be competing with the company that built the vehicle, the driver, and the network ALL AT ONCE. And this was during launch week... with just ~45 Cybercabs, before this vehicle is anywhere close to mature scale. If Tesla can push that cost down further as the fleet grows to thousands and millions, while Uber and Lyft still have to pay a human being to sit behind the wheel… I really don't see how these companies can survive... I think the days of Uber and Lyft are limited.
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