THERMAL ALERT: RYAZAN REFINERY, RUSSIA SITE • Ryazan refinery, Ryazan, Russia: 17 Mt/year nameplate capacity (about 340 kbpd), effective throughput about 262 kbpd (13.1 Mt processed in 2024), operated by Rosneft • A key fuel supply source for Moscow, about 300 km northwest, via product pipelines, though not the capital's sole source • The plant has been shut down since the Ukrainian strike of September 6, 2026, which caused major damage to CDU-6 and CDU-4. Reuters industry sources describe CDU-1, CDU-3 and CDU-4 as continuing to operate, which implies partial operation rather than a complete stop DETECTION • NASA FIRMS satellite thermal data at the plant: daily peak fire radiative power of 0.71 MW on October 12, 6.19 MW on October 15, and 20.38 MW on October 16, a clear two-day thermal event at a plant that should be near cold • Independent reporting of the same satellite data detected at least one fire at the tank farm overnight October 15-16 THE EVENT • Wave 1, October 15: mass Ukrainian drone and missile attack. Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed a fire at the refinery, with material damage being assessed and no casualties, plus a warehouse and vehicles damaged at a separate Ryazan enterprise. The Defence Ministry said 4 Flamingo cruise missiles and 69 UAVs were intercepted and that falling debris caused the fire. Reuters and AP carried the strike the same day • Wave 2, overnight October 15-16: Ukrainian OSINT reported the fire continued all night, with one to three tanks burning. Governor Malkov's overnight statement conflicts: five drones intercepted, no damage or casualties • No official Ukrainian General Staff claim for Ryazan as of the latest wires; an unnamed Ukrainian official confirmed the hit to AP THE VIRAL POST, CLAIM BY CLAIM • The video: not this event, high confidence. The clip shows a huge fireball inside the plant with snow covering the ground. Ryazan's night low on October 15-16 was about 46F, with no snow cover. Verified footage of this strike is a distant smoke glow over the city, and state TV showed a relatively small black smoke plume with no fire visible. The clip's scene and season match the January 24, 2025 Ryazan strike. Treat it as winter archive footage • Unit AT-6 stopped: half true and materially incomplete. Reuters reported on October 16, citing two industry sources, that CDU-6 (AT-6 is the same unit's Russian designation) was halted after Thursday's attack and several pipelines were damaged, with CDU-1, CDU-3 and CDU-4 operating. But CDU-6 had already been suspended after the September 6 strike. An already-down unit's halt was renewed, not a fresh kill • 17 Mt/year: correct as nameplate. Effective throughput is about 262 kbpd • Supplies Moscow: confirmed, as qualified above • Another refinery down: wrong framing. The plant has been down since September 6. This is a re-strike on a damaged plant, extending its outage and hitting its tank farm, not a new loss DAMAGE PICTURE • Confirmed by officials: fire at the refinery on October 15, no casualties • Sourced but single-lineage: CDU-6 halt and pipeline damage (two unnamed industry sources via Reuters; Rosneft has not commented) • OSINT only: one to three tanks burning overnight, consistent with the satellite thermal data. Nothing credible yet on storage volumes destroyed or on second-wave unit damage WHY IT MATTERS • Re-striking an already-down plant is a keep-it-down campaign: every additional hit on distillation units, pipelines and tankage pushes a restart further out, and Ryazan is the largest single supply source for the Moscow region • The open question that matters: if CDU-1, CDU-3 and CDU-4 are genuinely running, the plant is partially operating at reduced rates rather than fully shut, and Russian product balances sit between the two readings Coordinates: 54.5759, 39.7437