Do not use the notional value of Leopold’s put options.
It is very misleading.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness LP 13F:
Common stock longs: $3.856B
Call positions, underlying value: $1.362B
Total long / call exposure: $5.218B
The reported put value is mostly underlying notional, not the actual premium paid.
Some estimate: he may have spent around $500M buying the puts.
Very rough number, but directionally important.
This looks less like a “massive bearish short” and more like a large downside hedge / protection overlay against his long AI infrastructure plays.
Most likely, he was hedging for war / macro tail risk (seems reasonable hedging) and the puts got smoked after the massive semi rally in April.
Now FinX is running with the fear narrative.