Published $MU Bargain Thesis at $62. $PLTR $21. $RKLB $10. $SNDK $214.
Memory Engineer. Data Scientist. Founder of Blue Pink Candles. Masters 🎓 @UofIllinois
$MU $SKHY $DRAM Wow.
HBM4E is now expected to consume about 4x (400%) more wafers per bit than conventional DRAM.
Same fab capacity, same wafer starts, but a huge chunk of what used to become DDR is now becoming HBM instead.
These are additional clues from Micron's Chief Business Officer at the KeyBanc Tech Forum that there is no end in sight for this DRAM shortage, even with every fab expansion announced.
"To produce 100 bits of HBM, we have to reduce 300 bits of DDR supply because there is that 3 to 1 trade ratio between HBM3E and DDR. When you go to HBM4 and HBM4E, that trade ratio has worsened to closer to 4 to 1."
So every 100 bits of HBM4E produced costs the industry roughly 400 bits of DDR supply. And HBM bit demand keeps climbing through 2030.
Doesn't look like it's a temporary squeeze. Seems like a permanent reallocation of DRAM capacity toward HBM, and the trade ratio only gets worse from here.
Structural Shift.