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Vincent
@WhiteCollarExit
Analyst @MilkRoadAI | Finding opportunities across the AI value chain
参加 February 2022
127 フォロー中    1.4K ファン
$MU is still valued like we are approaching cycle peak (6-7x). The latest NAND data says that is wrong. (Save this) NAND wafer spot prices went sideways since March and spiked again in August. BofA attributes it to second-tier OEMs restocking into a market with almost no inventory left. Meaning, a "small" order wave was enough to move prices, because there was no spare supply to absorb it. Customers understand that this is the new normal, which is why $SNDK and $MU are now able to lock-in multi-year agreements. Micron has signed 16 take-or-pay agreements, 14 of which carry ~$100B of minimum contracted revenue through 2030! And the part nobody is pricing is the floor. Management says those contracted floor prices deliver gross margins well above Micron's peak in any prior cycle. So, its contracted worst case now beats its historical best case. We have been buying this memory dip aggressively, and Milk Road PRO members get a live notification every time we do. The price rises Aug. 26, so lock in today's rate before then:
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