Everyone owning $MU is trying to answer one question:
Do record memory prices mean the cycle is about to roll over? (Save this)
The case for no starts with NVDA evaluating 33% less HBM for its next architecture. They would not redesign around a part that is abundant!
Next, Memory spend currently at ~33% of total AI data center spend is expect to head to ~50% next year.
Also, the Moonshots clip below explains why supply-side is paranoid about oversupply from past boom-bust cycles. Which is why they are likely to not overbuild and also sign LTAs with floor prices.
However, there is one scenario (among others) where the memory trade could eventually break.
Today, AI repeatedly pulls model weights from memory to generate answers. If those weights become stable enough, you could bake them directly into the chip and remove much of the memory needed.
That works best for mature, repetitive workloads where the same model can run for a long time.
The tradeoff is flexibility. Once the model is baked into silicon, you cannot simply load the next version onto the same chip (=stranded assets).
My view is that 2026-28 is about using less HBM for each job, not eliminating memory.
Beyond that, innovation like the described case above could become materials.
At Milk Road PRO we have been banging the drum on memory since launching our portfolios in March. We bought the dip recently but also sold some of our AI infra positions. All with live notifications!
Come join us before prices increase after Aug 26: