Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by September? 🏦 Market says 7% VS Yarrow say 15% ☘️ Both sides agree: unlikely. But we think it's twice as likely as the market does. 🤔 Here's why. Daily ship transits have dropped from 19 to about 3. War-risk insurance is still sky-high. Current traffic is running 80% below what counts as "normal." But "normal traffic" is a much higher bar than "ceasefire." The market might be pricing whether the fighting stops — we're pricing whether the ships actually come back. Those are different questions with different timelines. The Aug 5 Iran-Oman corridor talks are the kind of development that could restart shipping faster than expected. That's where the gap between 7% and 15% lives. ▶️ What could move us: a fast diplomatic deal that reopens transit corridors. The closest precedent was the Islamabad Memorandum — the only time traffic recovered quickly after a similar crisis.