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Z
@ZeeContrarian1
Former Wall Street professional. Special situations, awareness, logic, Buddhism.
参加 September 2013
0 フォロー中    47K ファン
🚨 BREAKING NEWS: HAPAG-LLOYD AND FIMI ARE PUSHING HARD FOR APPROVAL OF THE $ZIM DEAL A new article reports that they received another 30 days to improve the offer and address the Israeli government’s concerns. The revised structure would give Israel greater control over $ZIM Israel, direct access to 16 new ships, and stronger protection of strategic shipping routes. OUR TAKE: The stated buyout price is $35 per share, valuing $ZIM at approximately $4.2 billion. However, once you include employee compensation, the assets and part of the business being transferred to FIMI, and other expenses, Hapag-Lloyd is effectively paying around $45 per share. This means its models likely valued $ZIM at at least $60 per share when they made the offer. And that valuation was calculated before the “golden swan” event we are now witnessing in shipping rates, which is nothing short of historic and re rating the entire industry. Why would Hapag-Lloyd pay so much? Because it understands that $ZIM is worth much more. Take a pen and paper and add up all of $ZIM’s assets, cash, vessels, and long-term charter contracts. You can easily reach a sum-of-the-parts valuation of more than $100 per share. But even that calculation understates the real value because many of these assets cannot simply be bought today, regardless of how much money you have. The average delivery time for a new container ship is more than three years, while many large LNG dual-fuel ships ordered today will not be delivered until 2029 or 2030. Recreating $ZIM’s fleet, contracts, routes, and operating network would take years. That scarcity makes the whole company worth considerably more than the simple sum of its parts. The original $35 bid was made when shipping rates were far lower. It is like bidding for an oil company when oil is at $60, while oil is now trading at $90. At current rates, $ZIM will have more than $30 per share in cash by year-end, more than its entire current public market value ($28.5). With aggressive buybacks and dividends, it is easy to see $ZIM doubling from here within the next few years while continuing to offer one of the highest dividend yields in the market.
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