๐๐ณ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ด-๐๐น๐ผ๐๐ฑโ๐ ๐ฏ๐๐๐ผ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ $ZIM ๐ด๐ผ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต, ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ ๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ $๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ, ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฌ.๐ฐ% ๐๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ.
We do not expect the transaction to close before next year. Therefore, current shareholders should receive approximately $5 per share in dividends before the deal closes.
A $35 buyout price plus $5 in dividends gives shareholders a total value of $40 per share. With $ZIM currently trading at $28.50, that represents approximately 40.4% upside.
Our bull-case scenario is $42 per share.
In Q3 2023, $ZIM recorded a $2.1 billion impairment charge due to the declining value of its ships and containers. At the time, HARPEX was around 800. Today, it is approximately 2,450.
After accounting for the shipsโ use and depreciation since then, we calculate that approximately $4 per share of underlying impairment value remains. The buyer would receive this additional value, so we expect the new management negotiating the final transaction to recover at least $2 per share for shareholders.
$35 buyout + $5 dividends + $2 recovered impairment value = $42 per share.
From $28.50, our bull case represents approximately 47.4% upside.