So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry:
Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated:
- $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially.
- NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products)
- Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply
Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply).
Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers.
- "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028.
- Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers.
- Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work)
So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing"
TLDR:
- NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices
- demand > supply (continuation)
- Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.