Alexander Markl
@alex_markl
Building @OrderX // Prev. PM @monarq_mgmt
参加 November 2010
518 フォロー中 2.1K ファン
There it is: De-escalation. As always, markets are the tail that wags the dog.
With oil & rates ripping, markets are exerting maximum pressure on Trump, leading to Iran having max leverage.
Binary reaction function from here:
• Quasi withdrawal with a weak deal (e.g. US Navy 'helps' secure strait & us, iran share profits lol)
• Military escalation -> multi-month battle for strait control, destruction of energy infra -> global recession.
Feels like we'll get a resolution this week. don't see trump having the balls to just sit through $120 oil and US 10yr at 4.8-5% this week without one of the two. 80/20 odds for a weak deal imo.
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