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Aylo
@alpha_pls
Internet money games.
参加 October 2021
3K フォロー中    135.3K ファン
Ok, well I'm going to talk about a token that everyone knows but has been very much forgotten about, and I thought I would never ever write about. The bull case for BAT (please stay with me): Brave is one of the few crypto native companies that won in the real world. $100M+ annualized revenue. 126M monthly users, 55M Daus. Its own search index doing 2.5B queries a month. People use it because it is fast and private performant browser, not because of a token anymore (although they did use the token to incentivise growth for a long time). Its advertising business is very successful, alongside its paid search API. BAT trades at a $170M market cap. Fully circulating. No unlocks. That is 1.7x revenue on a business growing users around 25% a year (not completely verified). And the $100M figure is from early 2025, 40M users ago. I can't find a more up to date figure. The token never captured any of that. That is why it went nowhere for five years. Roadmap 4.0 is the first real attempt to fix it. TLDR on 4.0: Unified Brave Wallet - Cards, self-custody crypto and Rewards in one interface, native in the browser. BravePay - A private, self-custody stablecoin payments layer. Brave Rewards Card - Virtual and physical. Earn BAT on everyday spend. They already have 150k on the waitlist before launch. Buybacks (Big change) - A share of net revenue from the wallet, card and BravePay buys BAT. Opportunistic buybacks on top, disclosed publicly. Distribution is Brave's massive edge, as it is for all successful businesses. Every crypto neobank is fighting for its first million users. Brave starts with 55M people opening the product every day. The wallet is already installed. Acquisition cost is zero. BAT printed an all-time low in August. It has doubled since and still sits 94% below its 2021 high. The rerate has barely got going. Every token has a bear case, so in this case Brave has equity. Token holders technically don't own the $100M. Buybacks come from the new product lines only, and the percentage is undisclosed. Bought BAT is not burned. It funds user rewards, and some recipients will sell. The card has no launch date yet I don't think. So this rerating that I think is possible is not a claim on Brave’s revenue. It is a cheap option on Brave monetising 126M users through payments, with BAT as the reward and the buyback sink. At 1.7x revenue with a new structural bidder, I think that option is mispriced. What is it worth? I don't know. The buyback percentage isn’t disclosed and the new products aren’t live. BAT traded at a $420M market cap last December. Before Roadmap 4.0, before buybacks and 20M users ago. Getting back there is 2.4x. Every $10M a year of buybacks is roughly 6% of today’s market cap. Brave does $100M+ in revenue before payments even launch. I’m not underwriting a specific number. I’m underwriting that I think $170M is the wrong one. If I'm wrong and nothing happens then I think the risk is underperformance more than anything. The thing that I think is also interesting here is a bigger pattern: Old tokens attached to businesses that survived are reworking value capture. Brave is unique as it has an unrivalled sizeable user base it can monetise and finally return value to token holders. Also, fun fact is Brave's founder invented javascript and co founded Mozilla. DYOR, NFA. One life, it's worth a shot etc.
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