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JPARCVUE
@ando34265
Independent research on Japanese SMID & growth equities. 13 yrs in software verification (Veriserve/SCSK), then 6 yrs in corporate strategy at Deloitte.
参加 March 2023
94 フォロー中    201 ファン
Japan's Inward FDI. What the Rising Trend Means Why Inward FDI Matters When a foreign company builds a factory in Japan or acquires a Japanese firm, more happens than a simple inflow of money Foreign management know how, technology, and access to global supply chains tend to come with it, and these can spread to domestic firms, supporting higher productivity and new jobs Direct investment differs from short term trading in stocks or bonds. It involves a long term commitment to a factory or a business unit, so its effect on the underlying strength of an economy tends to last longer What the Ratio to GDP Shows Inward FDI stock divided by nominal GDP shows how much of an economy is under some form of foreign ownership control, relative to its size A higher ratio is often read as a sign that a country is easier for foreign firms to enter, in terms of regulation and business practice Japan's ratio has stayed unusually low for a long time by international standards According to UNCTAD data, Japan ranked 198th out of 201 countries and regions in 2020. Only Iraq, North Korea, and Zimbabwe ranked lower This is part of the reason the Japanese government has made expanding inward FDI a national policy goal How to Read the Upward Trend The ratio stood at 3.7% in 2010 and reached 8.7% in 2025, more than doubling over fifteen years The rise has continued since 2020, when the ratio was 7.2%, adding another 1.5 percentage points over the past five years The absolute level is still low, but this fifteen year rise, and especially the pace over the last five years, is something JPARCVUE views positively There is a common criticism of this trend. Profits earned by foreign affiliated firms in Japan will eventually be sent home as dividends, and this could become a source of yen selling later on JPARCVUE sees this concern as premature. Japan's inward FDI is only now starting to move, from a level that was unusually low by international standards Worrying about future profit repatriation before the investment itself has built up looks like the wrong order of priorities It makes more sense to first grow the volume of investment, and deal with repatriation issues once they actually become a problem, in JPARCVUE's view This is not a fast moving topic like currency or stock prices, and the numbers involved can seem unremarkable Even so, JPARCVUE thinks general reporting could give this more attention than it currently gets Specialist economic media and government reports do cover it regularly, but its importance does not seem to reach a wider audience This remains an important factor for Japan's long term, stable economic growth, and JPARCVUE believes it is worth continued attention Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan, International Investment Position of Japan; Cabinet Office, National Accounts of Japan. Country ranking based on UNCTAD data cited by Japan's Cabinet Office (2020).
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