$INTC Intel Deep Dive: The Server Story Is Real. The Guide not Pretty.
Intel beat Q3 and still fell 21% after hours. Data center revenue grew 78%, the best in 15 years. DCAI now earns more than the PC business. 18A costs are down 40% since Q1.
Q4 came in $1.8B below the Street. A tragic accident at Fab 28 in Israel cost $300M. PCs are in freefall because AI is eating the world’s memory supply. And 2027 won’t be a free cash flow year.
I break down the numbers, the bull and bear case, what the stock prices in, and the five catalysts I’m watching before I buy.