An a former $INTC Intel engineer I wrote my thoughts on the company back in December, 2024.
I advocated investors against Intel.
Have my views changed?
I never owned Intel. Not when the stock ran. I worked there. I knew the failures were never about demand. They were about management and execution.
Lately I bought a small number of 2028 calls. I talked to former colleagues. Under Lip-Bu Tan, the company was focused on profits. The old, inefficient guard was being cleared out. The fab was doing better. 18A yields were improving.
I've always been skeptical about yields. Not just at Intel, but at any US fab, given how much talent we've lost over the years. That skepticism is starting to ease.
Yesterday's call was rough. Supply is the ceiling. Substrates are short. A tragic accident shut Fab 28. The stock fell 21%.
After a lot of angst, I'm holding. Here's why.
Intel is two very different businesses. One designs CPUs for servers and PCs. The other is a fab that drains capex. Demand isn't the problem for either one. Execution is.
Intel still shows wear and tear. But it has a better CEO than it has had in a decade, and the US government owns a stake. It's more able to fix its mistakes today than at any point I've watched.Demand is robust.
And there's the bigger picture. Intel is the only leading-edge US fab, and the only one showing real signs of change.
China is ahead in many ways. Depending on Taiwan is not a long-term plan. Trillions of dollars of US tech run on chips made on an island Beijing claims as part of One China.
Intel can't fail.
So I'll give it a chance. Call me foolish.